I've been trying to avoid politics for the most part. That said, I got a "blog request" this morning and I want to give the masses (in this case, my brother-in-law) what they want. I've spent a lot of time watching and reading about the Republican candidates for President and thought I'd share a few opinions (nobody get mad - these are simply my OPINIONS) about them going forward.
As I've mentioned before, I'm an independent. I vote for people and policies, not parties. As a matter of disclosure, I did not vote for President Obama in '08. I wasn't a McCain fan, but after looking at then Senator Obama's record in Illinois, I realized quickly that he and I just weren't going to be on the same page on most of the issues that are important to me. He was completely unqualified for the position, but the cult of personality took over and independents in key swing states elected him to the highest office. Reasonable people may disagree, but I don't feel like it's gone particularly well so the option in 2012 will be the survivor of the Republican primaries.
That's a problem in itself. To be elected to a national office, you MUST be either a Republican or a Democrat. There are a lot of very good candidates that would easily win a national election running as a Republican, but they have virtually no chance of winning the party's nomination because they don’t pass the "religious far-right" test on issues like abortion or gay marriage.
I'm going to go alphabetically through the candidates that matter. There are a lot of candidates that you've probably have never heard of - for good reason. Were you aware that karate expert Jimmy McMillan is back? He's "The Rent is Too Damn High Party" (seriously) candidate with the spectacular sideburns that keeps running for - and losing - about every political position out there. There's even a flight attendant, Tom Miller, who's declared. I'm going to dismiss these and other unrealistic candidates (with all due respect) and only discuss viable players. I'll tell you what I think of them, what their chances are of winning the nomination, and how I think they would do against our current President next November (keeping in mind that A LOT can happen between now and then).
Michele Bachmann - The three-term U.S. Representative from Minnesota has been a Tea-Party darling for years and recently won the Iowa Straw Poll (the straw poll at the Iowa State Fair isn't really worth the fried butter it's next to - Ron Paul won it last time and finished 2nd this year). A lot of people like to consider her a viable candidate. I'm not one of them. She's the Republican version of Obama to me - a member of congress from a failing state with no experience with the military or foreign policy of any kind. Some on the far right love to mention that she technically has 28 children (5 biological and another 23 foster girls that were all pregnant). I think this makes her more qualified for an episode of "Hoarders" than the White House. A few months ago I would have had to spend a little more time on Bachmann, but Rick Perry throwing his Stetson in the ring has pretty much ended any outside chance Bachmann had of winning the nomination - he's a bigger Tea Party darling than she is. It's probably for the best. I don't think Bachmann could beat Obama in key swing states like Florida. She's not stupid, but she's not exactly brilliant either. Her far-right religious stances that would help her in the Republican Party process wouldn't play well to the moderates she would have to capture to win on the national stage.
Herman Cain - It's hard not to love Herman Cain - or at the very least be impressed by him. He won't win the party's nomination, and it's a shame if for no other reason than it would have been fascinating to watch the Democrats try to figure out how to attack him. He's black (or as he calls himself an ABC - American Black Conservative) so they can't go to the race card like they did in '08. He came from a middle class upbringing with a father who worked three jobs and a mother who worked as a maid to put him through school, so they can't accuse him of being an elitist child of privilege. He was an outstanding student with a degree in mathematics and an MS in Computer Science so they can't accuse him of being a dunce. He worked for the US Navy, so he at least has some connection with the military - not that the Dems want to go there anyway. His business record is probably the most impressive of any candidate. He is credited with saving Godfather's Pizza as the President and CEO and that's just the tip of the iceberg. The only thing I can see Obama attacking him with in a debate is his lack of political experience, which Cain is the first to proudly claim anyway. I think he would beat Obama in a general election today, but he has no chance of taking the Republican primary. It has nothing to do with the color of his skin (despite what MSNBC likes to tell you), it's that he's viewed as closer to Ron Paul than anything else - a likable guy who is focused on only the fiscal issues.
Newt Gingrich - I won't waste much time on Newt, he's done. He won't be around for the finish of the primary, and won't be a serious consideration as a VP candidate for the ultimate selection. I'm not really a fan of Gingrich. He's intelligent and has a lot of experience, but his persona is abrasive and he has a LOT of baggage. The ONLY reason it would be interesting to see him emerge from the primaries is that most believe he would be the one candidate who would rip Obama to shreds in the debates. I'm not so sure about that, but I'd tune in to watch.
Jon Huntsman - I don't think Huntsman has a chance at the nomination, but I'd vote for him if he got it. He is a bipartisan thinking and media savvy motorcycle-riding former aide to both former presidents Reagan and Bush (H.W.). He has been a successful governor of Utah and served as ambassador to China. He's kind of an enigma. Huntsman is a conservative who is respected by the liberals, a blue blood that is at ease with average Americans, a devout Mormon with rock music sensibilities and a nationalist that still calls Chinese Vice President, Xi Jinping, a friend. Because of his personal fortune (yes, that's the billion dollar chemical giant Huntsman), he has never been beholden to anyone. His term as the Governor of Utah saw him maintaining a consistent, ridiculously high approval rating in excess of 70%. In fact, he won reelection for his second term by capturing an incredible 77.7% of the vote – an almost unheard of figure in modern top-tier politics. The respected Pew Center on the States cited Utah as the best managed state in the country during his tenure. He also seems to have no skeletons in his closet. If you ask Democrats and Independents which candidate on the Republican side they would vote for if they had to, I bet Huntsman would be the overwhelming choice. That's also why he won't win the party nomination. Huntsman would EASILY win a general election against Obama, but the Republican Party won't be able to get out of its own way to let that happen.
Ron Paul - Paul is the US Representative for the district that borders the one I live in here in Texas. He's not going to win - again - but everybody loves him - again. He's kind of like your crazy uncle that everybody likes, but nobody really takes all that seriously. He's not wrong about most of the things he says, but he's a one-trick pony. Paul cares about fiscal issues and what he wants to do will never happen, even with him as President. He's also a 75-year old libertarian. I'm not sure how a general election between Obama and Paul would play out, but we won't have to worry about it.
Rick Perry - I probably know the most about Perry of all the candidates since he's been my Governor here in Texas for 11 years. I think he's been a great Governor. I'm not quite as sure I like him as a President though. I had a feeling he was going to run, and so did the left - MSNBC has been attacking him for months prior to his announcement. Perry is undefeated in his political career at 10-0. He will run on his record as leading the state that has managed the recession better than any other. The early attacks focused on breaking down Texas as a mirage - not nearly as well off as it seems on the surface. I was watching the Rachel Maddow show earlier today and even they conceded that this may be a flawed approach. The next phase for the left will be to question whether Perry deserves any credit for Texas economic success. This approach may hold more water. Perry has, for the most part, simply continued the programs and philosophies that have been in place for decades. The left also loves to point out his comments on Texas possibly seceding from the US. First of all, he won't back off from those comments, and second of all, what's the big deal? If you drive around Texas, you WILL see "SECEDE" bumper stickers all over the place. I think Texan's think of secession kind of like most Americans think of a three-way - it's kind of an intriguing idea but it's probably never going to happen. One thing about Perry that you can count on is that he will tell you what he thinks. He's not acting when you see him hanging out with folks in his cowboy boots and jeans. Perry was a yell leader at Texas A&M and a pilot in the Air Force before working on the family farm. He entered Texas politics as a Democrat but switched sometime in the late 80's. What Perry really believes in are states' rights. He wants the states to be able to compete with each other economically and decide for themselves about most social issues. He's anti-union, anti-big government, anti-abortion, opposes same-sex unions, and won't take sh*t from ANY foreign regimes that don't align with our interests. He will raise more money than ANY other candidate by a mile, including Obama. He is loved by the Tea Party and the Republican base, but he will also galvanize the left in opposition to him. He is the front runner for the nomination at the moment. In a general election, it might be very important for Perry to pick the right running mate. If he could talk Marco Rubio into it (unlikely) he'd probably be a shoe-in. He'll carry the south, including Florida, but may have trouble in the north. I think he'd win a close one today, but he could still get in his own way (remember I said he'd tell you what he thinks). He's a legitimate religious zealot. I have no issue with religion, I just don't want my President making decisions using the WWJD model. I disagree with Perry on a lot of social issues, but I'm a believer in his fiscal policy (it's worked here) and in his foreign policy. Here's my statement on Perry: He may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but he'll bring a gun anyway so what difference does it make?
Mitt Romney - The former governor of Massachusetts is a very intelligent and very wealthy man. He'll be I this race to the end - probably head's up with Perry -and may ultimately finally get his chance to be President. It's really late and this is getting really long, so I'm going to short-change Mitt a little bit here, with the belief that I'll have about a year to continue talking about him. Most believe Romney may have issues in the primaries because as Governor of Massachusetts he implemented a health care plan that looked a lot like Obamacare long before Obama was around. I don't think this will really be a deciding factor as the economy has become issue one, two, and three. I'm OK with Romney…I think. He wouldn't be my first choice, but I think he has a good chance of beating Obama in a general election. I'm not sure he'll beat Perry in the primary though. With the assumption that he wins New Hampshire, it may come down to how bad he loses in South Carolina.
Rick Santorum - He has no chance and should probably follow Tim Pawlenty's lead and remove himself from the race.
There are two other non-candidates worth mentioning:
Sarah Palin - I really hope she just stays out of the way and doesn't muddle up the race. I'm not a fan, but I will say that if you forget about all the hype and SNL skits, etc. and go back and look at her record as Governor of Alaska, it's pretty darn impressive.
Rudy Giuliani - Giuliani would be my first choice all things being equal. He's got a lot of baggage though and the far right won't vote for him in a primary so he has no chance. He would absolutely win a general election with Obama though.
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